Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 1.639339 2.155968 2.850563 3.875751 5.391057e+00 7.617000 1.127151e+01
2024-12-15 1.188041 1.785085 2.739864 4.468416 7.741519e+00 14.212312 2.970461e+01
2024-12-22 0.891182 1.493575 2.609824 5.043679 1.093203e+01 27.065362 8.957363e+01
2024-12-29 0.699367 1.291572 2.547919 5.834533 1.616013e+01 58.040018 3.876240e+02
2025-01-05 0.554343 1.113829 2.453772 6.623959 2.382619e+01 135.665676 2.940607e+03
2025-01-12 0.416841 0.890838 2.134275 6.575328 2.974516e+01 272.183595 3.910375e+04
2025-01-19 0.312936 0.701630 1.797739 6.185920 3.441938e+01 520.291607 5.884748e+06
2025-01-26 0.254964 0.602847 1.667418 6.543711 4.754335e+01 1580.513555 NaN
2025-02-02 0.221266 0.554584 1.672630 7.676456 7.927470e+01 10937.038145 NaN
2025-02-09 0.197539 0.524843 1.731073 9.428022 1.505391e+02 497315.736713 NaN
2025-02-16 0.170057 0.471742 1.665636 10.407510 2.473084e+02 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 0.141838 0.404771 1.496007 10.287544 3.326862e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 0.115707 0.337743 1.295294 9.647248 4.126397e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 0.101877 0.308940 1.262656 10.842910 8.134549e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 0.089707 0.281365 1.217947 11.963757 1.677230e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 0.080433 0.261218 1.201360 13.687213 4.438867e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 0.072125 0.241593 1.173799 15.392134 1.370917e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 0.062144 0.211198 1.053250 14.798754 2.426196e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.053081 0.181801 0.919484 13.417521 3.211272e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.047598 0.166273 0.871870 14.049708 1.115570e+05 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.044386 0.159711 0.884846 16.686653 3.011726e+06 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.042085 0.156498 0.922859 20.997521 NaN NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.038768 0.147186 0.903392 23.320013 NaN NaN NaN